全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution
	Andrea Bastianin; Marzio Galeotti; Matteo Manera
发表日期	2013
出处	Energy: Resources and Markets
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	This paper examines the relationship between biofuels and commodity food prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. While a large body of literature has tried to explain the linkages between sample means and volatilities associated with ethanol and agricultural price returns, little is known about their whole distributions. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops returns distribution, or vice versa. Density forecasts are constructed using Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models estimated with Asymmetric Least Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest to the analyst. Results show that both the centre and the left tail of the ethanol returns distribution can be predicted by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of the field crops distribution. Suggested citation: Andrea Bastianin, Marzio Galeotti, Matteo Manera, Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited, Energy Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 152-160, ISSN 0140-9883, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2013.12.014
特色分类	C22;C53;Q13;Q42;Q47
关键词	Biofuels Ethanol Field Crops Density Forecasting Granger Causality Quantiles
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/food-versus-fuel-causality-and-predictability-in-distribution/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118152
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrea Bastianin,Marzio Galeotti,Matteo Manera. Food versus Fuel: Causality and Predictability in Distribution. 2013.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
2013325942241Nota_di（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
2013325942524NDL2013（825KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览