全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): On the Timing of Political Regime Changes: Theory and Application to the Arab Spring

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	On the Timing of Political Regime Changes: Theory and Application to the Arab Spring
	Raouf Boucekkine; Fabien Prieur; Klarizze Puzon
发表日期	2014
出处	Economy and Society
出版年	2014
语种	英语
摘要	We develop a continuous time dynamic game to provide with a benchmark theory of Arab Spring-type events. We consider a resource-dependent economy with two interacting groups, the elite vs. the citizens, and two political regimes, dictatorship vs. a freer regime. Transition to the freer regime can only be achieved if citizens decide to revolt given the concession/repression policy of the elite. Departing from the related literature, the revolution optimal timing is an explicit control variable in the hands of citizens. The elite is the strategic leader: she ultimately chooses her policy knowing the reaction function of citizens. In this framework, we provide with a full equilibrium analysis of the political regime switching game and notably emphasize the role of the direct switching cost of the citizens and of the elite's self-preservation options. In particular, we show how the incorporation of explicit revolution timing may change the conventional wisdom in the related institutional change literature. Finally, we emphasize how the theory may help explaining some key features of the Arab Spring. *** Suggested citation: Boucekkine, R., F. Prieur, K. Puzon, (2014), 'On the Timing of Political Regime Changes: Theory and Application to the Arab Spring', Nota di Lavoro 104.2014, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
特色分类	C61;D74;Q34
关键词	Political Transitions Revolution Natural Resources Optimal Timing Regime Switching Dynamic Game
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/on-the-timing-of-political-regime-changes-theory-and-application-to-the-arab-spring/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118240
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Raouf Boucekkine,Fabien Prieur,Klarizze Puzon. On the Timing of Political Regime Changes: Theory and Application to the Arab Spring. 2014.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
201412191521411Nota_（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
201412191521494NL201（1786KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览