全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Bending The Learning Curve

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Bending The Learning Curve
	Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks; Elena Verdolini; Massimo Tavoni
发表日期	2015
出处	Climate Change and Sustainable Development
出版年	2015
语种	英语
摘要	This paper aims at improving the application of the learning curve, a popular tool used for forecasting future costs of renewable technologies in integrated assessment models (IAMs). First, we formally discuss under what assumptions the traditional (OLS) estimates of the learning curve can deliver meaningful predictions in IAMs. We argue that the most problematic of them is the absence of any effect of technology cost on its demand (reverse causality). Next, we show that this assumption can be relaxed by modifying the traditional econometric method used to estimate the learning curve. The new estimation approach presented in this paper is robust to the reverse causality problem but preserves the reduced form character of the learning curve. Finally, we provide new estimates of learning curves for wind turbines and PV technologies which are tailored for use in IAMs. Our results suggest that the learning rate should be revised downward for wind power, but possibly upward for solar PV. *** Suggested citation: Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Elena Verdolini, Massimo Tavoni, Bending the learning curve, Energy Economics, Volume 52, Supplement 1, December 2015, Pages S86-S99, ISSN 0140-9883, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.09.007
特色分类	Q42;Q55;C55;C26
关键词	Learning Curve Renewable Technologies Integrated Assessment Models
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/bending-the-learning-curve/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118419
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks,Elena Verdolini,Massimo Tavoni. Bending The Learning Curve. 2015.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
2015714948531Nota_di（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
201571494914NDL2015-（1608KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览