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来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
规范类型 | 论文 |
Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market | |
Andrea Bastianin; Alessandro Lanza; Matteo Manera | |
发表日期 | 2016 |
出处 | Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We develop a structural econometric model to study the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Colombian coffee production, exports and price. Our empirical specification is consistent with an economic model of the coffee market that, in the short-run, is characterized by a downward-sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. This allows the study of the effects of unpredictable innovations to ENSO on the Colombian coffee price, while controlling for shocks arising from both the supply and the demand-side of the market. We show that El Niño events (i.e. positive shocks to ENSO) might be beneficial for production and exports and tend to decrease the price of coffee. On the contrary, La Niña conditions (i.e. negative shocks to ENSO) depress coffee production and exports and increase price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. In the short-run, ENSO shocks explain 2% of the fluctuations of coffee production and 0.2% of the variability of the price of coffee. In the long-run, these percentages rise to 8% and 6%, respectively. Both in the short-run and in the long-run, demand-side shocks are more relevant than supply-side shocks in explaining the dynamics of the price of coffee. *** Suggested citation: Bastianin, A., A. Lanza, M. Manera, (2016), 'Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market', Nota di Lavoro 73.2016, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei |
特色分类 | C32;O13;Q02;Q11;Q54 |
关键词 | Coffee Colombia El Niño ENSO La Niña Structural VAR |
URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/economic-impacts-of-el-nino-southern-oscillation-evidence-from-the-colombian-coffee-market/ |
来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118444 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andrea Bastianin,Alessandro Lanza,Matteo Manera. Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market. 2016. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
201611241230121Nota_(71KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
201611241230544NDL20(1621KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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