G2TT
来源类型FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型论文
Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market
Andrea Bastianin; Alessandro Lanza; Matteo Manera
发表日期2016
出处Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要We develop a structural econometric model to study the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Colombian coffee production, exports and price. Our empirical specification is consistent with an economic model of the coffee market that, in the short-run, is characterized by a downward-sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. This allows the study of the effects of unpredictable innovations to ENSO on the Colombian coffee price, while controlling for shocks arising from both the supply and the demand-side of the market. We show that El Niño events (i.e. positive shocks to ENSO) might be beneficial for production and exports and tend to decrease the price of coffee. On the contrary, La Niña conditions (i.e. negative shocks to ENSO) depress coffee production and exports and increase price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. In the short-run, ENSO shocks explain 2% of the fluctuations of coffee production and 0.2% of the variability of the price of coffee. In the long-run, these percentages rise to 8% and 6%, respectively. Both in the short-run and in the long-run, demand-side shocks are more relevant than supply-side shocks in explaining the dynamics of the price of coffee. *** Suggested citation: Bastianin, A., A. Lanza, M. Manera, (2016), 'Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market', Nota di Lavoro 73.2016, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
特色分类C32;O13;Q02;Q11;Q54
关键词Coffee Colombia El Niño ENSO La Niña Structural VAR
URLhttps://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/economic-impacts-of-el-nino-southern-oscillation-evidence-from-the-colombian-coffee-market/
来源智库Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118444
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Andrea Bastianin,Alessandro Lanza,Matteo Manera. Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market. 2016.
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