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来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series |
规范类型 | 论文 |
Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area | |
Claudio Morana | |
发表日期 | 2016 |
出处 | Energy Scenarios and Policy |
出版年 | 2016 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not all the oil price shocks are alike", yet without imposing any a priori identification assumption. We find evidence of recessionary effects triggered not only by oil price hikes, but also by oil price slumps in some cases, likewise for the most recent episode, which is also rising deflation risk and financial distress. In addition through uncertainty effects, the current slump might then be depressing aggregate demand by increasing the real interest rate, as ECB monetary policy is already conducted at the zero lower bound. The increase in real money balances following the slump points to the accommodation of the shock by the ECB, concurrent with the implementation of the Quantitative Easing policy (Q.E.). Yet, in so far as Q.E failed to generate inflationary expectations within the current and expected environment of soft oil prices, the case for a more expansionary use of fiscal policy than in the past would become compelling, in order to counteract the deflationary and recessionary threats to the euro area. *** Suggested citation: Morana, C., (2016), 'Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area', Nota di Lavoro 23.2016, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei |
特色分类 | E30;E50;C32 |
关键词 | Oil Price Shocks Oil Price-macroeconomy Relationship Risk Factors Semiparametric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model Time-varying Parameter Models |
URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/macroeconomic-and-financial-effects-of-oil-price-shocks-evidence-for-the-euro-area/ |
来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118471 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Claudio Morana. Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area. 2016. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
20163161125341Nota_d(71KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
20163161125494NDL201(981KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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