G2TT
来源类型FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型论文
Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in their Judgments about Future Energy Technologies
Gregory F. Nemet; Laura Diaz Anadon; Elena Verdolini
发表日期2016
出处Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways
出版年2016
语种英语
摘要Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and over-confidence is a persistent problem. We provide quantitative evidence of how these choices affect experts’ estimates of the costs of future energy technologies. We harmonize data from 19 elicitations, involving 215 experts, on the 2030 costs of 5 energy technologies: nuclear, biofuels, bioelectricity, solar, and carbon capture. We control for expert characteristics, survey design, and public R&D investment levels on which the elicited values are conditional. We find that, on average, when experts respond to elicitations in person, they ascribe lower confidence (larger uncertainty) to their estimates than when responding via mail or online. In-person interviews also produce more optimistic assessments of best-case (10th percentile) outcomes. The impacts of expert affiliation—government, private sector, or academic—and geography—US or EU—are also significant; academics and US experts have lower confidence than other types of experts. Higher R&D investment levels have no effect on the confidence of experts’ judgments. R&D reduces both the median and breakthrough (10th percentile) cost estimates, although the size of the effect varies across technologies. These results indicate the source, direction, and size of bias in energy technology elicitations. They also point to the technology specificity of some of the effects. These biases should be seriously considered, both in interpreting the results of existing elicitations and in designing new ones. *** Suggested citation: Nemet, G., Anadon L. D. and Verdolini E. (2016), “Quantifying the effects of expert selection and elicitation design on experts’ confidence in their judgments about future energy technologies”, Risk Analysis, doi:10.1111/risa.12604.
特色分类O13;O14;Q4
关键词Expert Elicitations Uncertainty Energy Technologies Heuristic Biases Survey Design
URLhttps://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/quantifying-the-effects-of-expert-selection-and-elicitation-design-on-experts-confidence-in-their-judgments-about-future-energy-technologies/
来源智库Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118513
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Gregory F. Nemet,Laura Diaz Anadon,Elena Verdolini. Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in their Judgments about Future Energy Technologies. 2016.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
20169151054271Nota_d(71KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
20169151054434NDL201(3066KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Gregory F. Nemet]的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Gregory F. Nemet]的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Gregory F. Nemet]的文章
[Laura Diaz Anadon]的文章
[Elena Verdolini]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: 20169151054271Nota_di_Lavoro.jpg
格式: JPEG
文件名: 20169151054434NDL2016-061.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。