全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers
	Andrea Bastianin; Marzio Galeotti; Matteo Manera
发表日期	2017
出处	Economic Theory
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	Call centers' managers are interested in obtaining accurate forecasts of call arrivals because these are a key input in staffing and scheduling decisions. Therefore their ability to achieve an optimal balance between service quality and operating costs ultimately hinges on forecast accuracy. We present a strategy to model selection in call centers which is based on three pillars: (i) a flexible loss function; (ii) statistical evaluation of forecast accuracy; (iii) economic evaluation of forecast performance using money metrics. We implement fourteen time series models and seven forecast combination schemes on three series of call arrivals. We show that second moment modeling is important when forecasting call arrivals. From the point of view of a call center manager, our results indicate that outsourcing the development of a forecasting model is worth its cost, since the simple Seasonal Random Walk model is always outperformed by other, relatively more sophisticated, specifications. *** Suggested citation: Bastianin, A., M. Galeotti, M. Manera, (2017), 'Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers', Nota di Lavoro 6.2017, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
特色分类	C22;C25;C53;D81;M15
关键词	ARIMA Call Center Arrivals Loss Function Seasonality Telecommunications Forecasting
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/statistical-and-economic-evaluation-of-time-series-models-for-forecasting-arrivals-at-call-centers/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118523
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Andrea Bastianin,Marzio Galeotti,Matteo Manera. Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Time Series Models for Forecasting Arrivals at Call Centers. 2017.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
20171311143531Nota_d（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
2017131114474NDL2017（769KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览