全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO
	Claudio Morana; Giacomo Sbrana
发表日期	2017
出处	Economic Theory
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	The paper investigates the linkages between temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO. By means of a new flexible trend modeling approach, we uncover a nonlinear linkage between radiative forcing and global temperature anomalies. The nonlinear trend closely tracks the low frequency evolution in temperature anomalies, also accounting for the mid-end 1990s level switch, the 1998-2013 "warming hiatus" and the current steepening in trend temperatures. Radiative forcing is also found to account for trend dynamics in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), therefore providing support for the view that global warming might affect natural variability oscillations such as ENSO, and therefore enhance their disruptive effects. We also document the feature of time-varying volatility of temperature anomalies and SOI, which is well described by an IGARCH process. By means of a new dynamic conditional correlation model (SP-DCC), we finally document the presence of time-varying conditional correlations relating temperature anomalies across various zones and SOI. The correlation pattern is found to be consistent with the effects of ENSO events in the Tropics and their teleconnections. *** Suggested citation: Morana, C., G. Sbrana, (2017), 'Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO', Nota di Lavoro 9.2017, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei
特色分类	C32
关键词	Temperature Anomaly Global Warming Warming Hiatus Radiative Forcing ENSO El Niño Conditional Heteroskedasticity Semiparametric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/temperature-anomalies-radiative-forcing-and-enso/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118525
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Claudio Morana,Giacomo Sbrana. Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO. 2017.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
20172211214481Nota_d（71KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览
2017221121524NDL2017（1173KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览