| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| A Simple Framework for Climate-Change Policy under Model Uncertainty |
| Stergios Athanasoglou; Valentina Bosetti; Laurent Drouet
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| 发表日期 | 2017
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| 出处 | Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways
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| 出版年 | 2017
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of climate-change policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a "satisficing", as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-à-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of climate-change policy making, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the value function we propose is an analogue of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply this decision criterion to probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. The main result that emerges is the superiority of "medium" carbon budgets in line with a 3°C target (i.e., 2000-3000 GtCO2) in preventing large future consumption losses with high probability. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably, and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.
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Suggested citation: Athanasoglou, S., V. Bosetti, L. Drouet, (2017), 'A Simple Framework for Climate-Change Policy under Model Uncertainty', Nota di Lavoro 13.2017, Milan, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei |
| 特色分类 | C60;D81;Q42;Q48
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| 关键词 | Satisficing
Model Uncertainty
Climate Change
Computational Geometry
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/a-simple-framework-for-climate-change-policy-under-model-uncertainty/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118534
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Stergios Athanasoglou,Valentina Bosetti,Laurent Drouet. A Simple Framework for Climate-Change Policy under Model Uncertainty. 2017.
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