全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

G2TT

来源类型	FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
规范类型	论文
	Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change
	Malcolm N. Mistry; Ian Sue Wing; Enrica De Cian
发表日期	2017
出处	Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (U.S.) against U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1,000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. Majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields. *** Suggested citation: Malcolm N. Mistry et al. 2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 075007, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c
特色分类	Q1;Q5
关键词	Climate Change Impacts Crop Yields Global Gridded Crop Models ISI-MIP
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/simulated-vs-empirical-weather-responsiveness-of-crop-yields-u-s-evidence-and-implications-for-the-agricultural-impacts-of-climate-change/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118550
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Malcolm N. Mistry,Ian Sue Wing,Enrica De Cian. Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change. 2017.

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ndl2017-041.pdf（4264KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览