| 来源类型 | FEEM working papers "Note di lavoro" series
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment |
| Ilke Aydogan; Loϊc Berger; Valentina Bosetti; Ning Liu
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| 发表日期 | 2018
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| 出处 | Economic Theory
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| 出版年 | 2018
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | We experimentally explore decision-making under uncertainty using a framework that decomposes uncertainty into three distinct layers: (1) physical uncertainty, entailing inherent randomness within a given probability model, (2) model uncertainty, entailing subjective uncertainty about the probability model to be used and (3) model misspecification, entailing uncertainty about the presence of the true probability model among the set of models considered. Using a new experimental design, we measure individual attitudes towards these di erent layers of uncertainty and study the distinct role of each of them in characterizing ambiguity attitudes. In addition to providing new insights into the underlying processes behind ambiguity aversion -failure to reduce compound probabilities or distinct attitudes towards unknown probabilities- our study provides the first empirical evidence for the intermediate role of model misspecification between model uncertainty and Ellsberg in decision-making under uncertainty.
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Suggested citation: Aydogan, I., L. Berger, V. Bosetti, N. Liu, (2018), 'Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment ', Nota di Lavoro 24.2018, Milano, Italy: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei |
| 特色分类 | D81
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| 关键词 | Ambiguity Aversion
Reduction of Compound Lotteries
Non-expected Utility
Model Uncertainty
Model Misspecification
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| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/feem-working-papers-note-di-lavoro-series/three-layers-of-uncertainty-an-experiment/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118597
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Ilke Aydogan,Loϊc Berger,Valentina Bosetti,et al. Three Layers of Uncertainty: an Experiment. 2018.
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