全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

G2TT

来源类型	External Publications
规范类型	其他
	Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
	G. Marangoni; M. Tavoni; V. Bosetti; E. Borgonovo; P. Capros; O. Fricko; D. E. H. J. Gernaat; C. Guivarch; P. Havlik; D. Huppmann; N. Johnson; P. Karkatsoulis; I. Keppo; V. Krey; E. Ó Broin; J. Price & D. P. van Vuuren
发表日期	2017
出版年	2017
语种	英语
摘要	Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation1. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm2 allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities.
URL	https://www.feem.it/en/publications/external-publications/sensitivity-of-projected-long-term-co2-emissions-across-the-shared-socio-economic-pathways/
来源智库	Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118733
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	G. Marangoni,M. Tavoni,V. Bosetti,et al. Sensitivity of projected long-term CO2 emissions across the Shared Socio-economic Pathways. 2017.