| 来源类型 | External Publications
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| 规范类型 | 其他
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| COP21 Climate Negotiator's Responses to Climate Model Forecasts |
| Bosetti; V.; E. Weber; L. Berger; D. Budescu; N. Liu; M. Tavoni
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| 发表日期 | 2017
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| 出版年 | 2017
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group1. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models’ forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports2,3. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models’ forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest. |
| URL | https://www.feem.it/en/publications/external-publications/cop21-climate-negotiator-s-responses-to-climate-model-forecasts/
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| 来源智库 | Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Italy)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/118734
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Bosetti,V.,E. Weber,et al. COP21 Climate Negotiator's Responses to Climate Model Forecasts. 2017.
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