| 摘要 | This paper describes a simulation model, MEDEE 2, designed to evaluate the long-term energy demand of a country, in combination with a scenario description of the main aspects of the country's social, economic, and technological evolution. This approach considers in a detailed way a national energy demand pattern and breaks down the total demand in a multitude of end-use categories (e.g., residential space heating, service sector cooling, gasoline for intercity cars). By means of this detailed investigation of energy demand we are better able to take into account the influence on energy demand of changes in social needs, economic growth, government policies, or technologies, especially in the present context of high energy prices. In addition, it makes possible the identification of the potential market (i.e. maximum demand that can be technically met) of each final energy form (e.g., electricity, coal, gas, solar, oil products, and district heat). |
