| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Working Paper) |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Uncertainity and Arbitrariness in Ecosystems Modelling: A Lake Modelling Example. | |
| Fedra K; Straten G van; Beck MB | |
| 发表日期 | 1980 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-087 |
| 出版年 | 1980 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Mathematical models of ecosystems are considerable simplifications of reality, and the data upon which they are based are usually scarce and uncertain. Calibration of large, complex models depends upon arbitrary assumptions and choices, and frequently calibration procedures do not deal adequately with the uncertainty in the data describing the system under study. Since much of the uncertainty and arbitrariness in ecological modeling is inevitable, because of both practical as well as theoretical limitations, model-based predictions should at least reveal their dependence on, and sensitivity to, uncertainty and arbitrary assumptions. The paper proposes a method that explicitly takes into account the uncertainty associated with data for modeling. By reference to a qualitative and somewhat vague definition of system behavior in terms of allowable ranges, an ensemble of acceptable parameter vectors for the model may be identified. This contrasts directly with a more conventional approach to model calibration, in which a quantitative (squared-error) criterion is minimized and through which a supposedly "unique" and "best" set of parameters can be derived. The ensemble of parameter vectors is then used for the simulation of a multitude of future systems behavior patterns, so that the uncertainty in the initial data and assumptions is preserved, and the thus predicted future systems response can be interpreted in a probabilistic manner. |
| 主题 | Resources and Environment Area (REN) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1382/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/122004 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fedra K,Straten G van,Beck MB. Uncertainity and Arbitrariness in Ecosystems Modelling: A Lake Modelling Example.. 1980. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| WP-80-087.pdf（1126KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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