| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| Global Prospects for Population Growth and Distribution. |
| Keyfitz N; Just P
|
| 发表日期 | 1982
|
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-82-036
|
| 出版年 | 1982
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | Accurate estimates of future populations are out of reach of present techniques; the methods actually used, however they are described, are extrapolations of past trends and cannot anticipate turning points in births or other components. The present paper is no exception. It summarizes the errors of past work in the expectation that these will indicate the accuracy of the figures here contained. The method used in this paper is to suppose some year in which each country will attain bare replacement (an average of about 2.3 children per fertile couple) along with a smooth transition to that condition, and a continuance of replacement until the age distribution stabilizes and the population becomes stationary. For most countries we took the turn of the century as about the time when replacement would be reached. Estimates of population and labor force are shown by age and sex at 25 year intervals for 150 countries; groupings are given by continent and degree of development. Printouts are available showing much more detail than we have been able to publish in this working paper. |
| 主题 | Human Settlements and Services Area (HSS)
|
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/1980/
|
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/122627
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Keyfitz N,Just P. Global Prospects for Population Growth and Distribution.. 1982.
|
|
文件名：
|
WP-82-036.pdf
|
|
格式：
|
Adobe PDF
|
此文件暂不支持浏览
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
