| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk. |
| Parry ML; Carter TR
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| 发表日期 | 1984
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| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-84-069
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| 出版年 | 1984
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The thesis of this paper is that impacts from climatic change can be evaluated effectively as changes in the frequency of short-term, anomalous climatic events. These can then be expressed as changes in the level of risk of impact from climatic extremes. To evaluate this approach, the risk of crop failure resulting from low levels of accumulated temperature is assessed for oats farming in southern Scotland. Annual accumulated temperatures are calculated for the 323-year long temperature record compiled by Manley for Central England. These are bridged across to southern Scotland and, by calculating mean levels of risk for different elevations, an average "risk surface" is constructed. 1-in-10 and 1-in-50 frequencies of crop failure are assumed to delineate a high-risk zone, which is mapped for the 323-year period by constructing isopleths of these risk levels. By re-drawing the risk isopleths for warm and cool 50-year periods, the geographical shift of the high-risk zone is delineated. The conclusion is that relatively recent and apparently minor climatic variations in the United Kingdom have in fact induced substantial spatial changes in levels of agricultural risk. An advantage of expressing climatic change as a change in agricultural risk, is that support programs for agriculture can be re-tuned to accommodate acceptable frequencies of impact by adjusting support levels to match new risk levels. |
| 主题 | Climate Impacts (CLI)
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2449/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/123016
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Parry ML,Carter TR. The Effect of Climatic Variations on Agricultural Risk.. 1984.
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文件名：
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WP-84-069.pdf
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格式：
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Adobe PDF
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