| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Collaborative Paper) |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| The Propogation of Uncertainty in Human Mortality Processes. | |
| Yashin AI; Manton KG; Stallard E | |
| 发表日期 | 1985 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-85-036 |
| 出版年 | 1985 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Human mortality and aging have frequently been modeled as stochastic diffusion processes. Estimates of the parameters of these processes have been made from various longitudinal studies. This paper shows how the stochasticity intrinsic to those processes will propagate through time and generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for the future values of the physiological variables; and for the conditional survival functions and conditional life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The results show that a major component of uncertainty is due to mortality. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2712/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/123096 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yashin AI,Manton KG,Stallard E. The Propogation of Uncertainty in Human Mortality Processes.. 1985. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| CP-85-036.pdf（345KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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