| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint)) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy. | |
| Ausubel JH; Grubler A; Nakicenovic N | |
| 发表日期 | 1988 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-88-007. |
| 出版年 | 1988 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first ("efficiency") scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second ("long wave") they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO2 concentrations in a "methane economy" are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with long-wave theories in economics. |
| 主题 | Dynamics of Technology Program (DOT) ; Technology, Economy, Society (TES) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/3075/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/123514 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ausubel JH,Grubler A,Nakicenovic N. Carbon Dioxide Emissions in a Methane Economy.. 1988. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| RR-88-007.pdf（4935KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
