全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods.

G2TT

来源类型	Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
规范类型	论文
	Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods.
	Goldstein JR; Lutz W; Pflug GC
发表日期	1994
出版者	IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-106
出版年	1994
语种	英语
摘要	This paper proposes a new approach to introducing quantitatively measured uncertainty into population projections. It is to a lesser degree based on past time-series than other approaches, since it uses random walk models for migration, mortality and fertility, for which upper and lower bounds are defined. No parametric distribution is fitted to the observations, but the random walk is resampled from the past data. By putting bounds on the level that fertility can reach in the future, further substantive information is introduced that transcends the information derived from the observed time series. By sampling 10.000 path of the random walks in fertility, mortality and migration, the distributions of population size and structure up to 2050 for Austria, Mauritius and USA are estimated.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4106/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124229
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Goldstein JR,Lutz W,Pflug GC. Estimating the Uncertainty in Population Projections by Resampling Methods.. 1994.