| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Working Paper) |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| Pathways of Economic Development in an Uncertain Environment: A Finite Scenario Approach to the U.S. Region Under Carbon Emission Restrictions. | |
| Rosa CH | |
| 发表日期 | 1994 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-94-041 |
| 出版年 | 1994 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prediction of future economic behavior is increasingly important for both public and private economic planning. This prediction is, however, increasingly fraught with difficulties because of the uncertainty surrounding the future state of so many key economic parameters. In this paper we consider how stochastic programming may be a valuable tool in the analysis of these kinds of problems. Using the U.S. region of Alan Manne and Richard Richels Global 2100 five region world trade model and a set of eight future state-of-the-world scenarios, we observe how the development paths of several key variables predicted by stochastic programming differ in interesting ways from the paths predicted using deterministic methods. We conclude that the explicit way in which stochastic programming models uncertainty may prove useful to economic analysis efforts and provide additional insight into the nature of economic development in an uncertain environment. |
| 主题 | Optimization under Uncertainty (OPT) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4168/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124284 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rosa CH. Pathways of Economic Development in an Uncertain Environment: A Finite Scenario Approach to the U.S. Region Under Carbon Emission Restrictions.. 1994. |
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| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| WP-94-041.pdf（1003KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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