| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint)) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can Be Modeled and Predicted? | |
| Marchetti C; Meyer PS; Ausubel JH | |
| 发表日期 | 1996 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-96-014. |
| 出版年 | 1996 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Decrease or growth of population comes from the interplay of death and birth (and locally, migration). We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth). For death, once an individual has legally entered society, the logistic model portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a 200-year process that forestalls death until about 80 for men and the mid-80s for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic model covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human demographics is runaway growth or slow implosion. Thus, we revisit the logistic analysis of aggregate human numbers. |
| 主题 | Institute Scholars (INS) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4858/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124490 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marchetti C,Meyer PS,Ausubel JH. Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can Be Modeled and Predicted?. 1996. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| RR-96-14.pdf（10420KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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