| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint)) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Climate Change and World Food Security: A New Assessment. | |
| Parry ML; Rosenzweig C; Iglesias A; Fischer G; Livermore M | |
| 发表日期 | 1998 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-99-012. |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Building on previous work, quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hume et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, 1998) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million (+/- 10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble members are selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked reduction in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario, the effect is even more severe, producing an estimated additional 70+ million people at risk of hunger in Africa. |
| 主题 | Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5646/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124865 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parry ML,Rosenzweig C,Iglesias A,et al. Climate Change and World Food Security: A New Assessment.. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| RR-99-12.pdf（6793KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
