| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint)) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Modeling Technological Change: Implications for the Global Environment. | |
| Grubler A; Nakicenovic N; Victor DG | |
| 发表日期 | 1999 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-00-003. |
| 出版年 | 1999 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Technology largely determines economic development and its impact on the environment; yet technological change is one of the least developed parts of existing global change models. This paper reviews two approaches developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, both of which use the concept of technological learning and aid modeling of technological change. The first approach is a micromodel ("bottom-up") of three electricity generation technologies that rigorously endogenizes technological change by incorporating both uncertainty (stochasticity) and learning into the model's decision rules. This model, with its endogenous technological change, allows radical innovations to penetrate the energy market and generates S-shaped patterns of technological diffusion that are observed in the real world. The second approach is a macro ("top-down") model that consists of coupled economic- and technological-system models. Although more stylistic in its representation of endogenous technological change, the macro model can be applied on a worldwide scale and can generate long-term scenarios that are critical for policy analysis. Both the micro and macro models generate radical departures from currently dominant technological systems ("surprises"), including long-term scenarios with low carbon and sulfur emissions. Our focus is modeling, but for policy, the work underscores the need for huge investments before environmentally superior technologies can compete in the market. |
| 主题 | Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5942/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124948 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grubler A,Nakicenovic N,Victor DG. Modeling Technological Change: Implications for the Global Environment.. 1999. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| RR-00-03.pdf（10704KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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