| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint)) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change. | |
| Grubler A; Nakicenovic N; Victor DG | |
| 发表日期 | 1999 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-99-007. |
| 出版年 | 1999 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Technological choices largely determine the long-term characteristics of industrial society, including impacts on the natural environment. However, the treatment of technology in existing models that are used to project economic and environmental futures remains highly stylized. Based on work over two decades at IIASA, we present a useful typology for technology analysis and discuss methods that can be used to analyze the impact of technological changes on the global environment, especially global warming. Our focus is energy technologies, the main source of many atmospheric environmental problems. We show that much improved treatment of technology is possible with a combination of historical analysis and new modeling techniques. In the historical record, we identify characteristic "learning rates" that allow simple quantified characterization of the improvement in cost and performance due to cumulative experience and investments. We also identify patterns, processes and timescales that typify the diffusion of new technologies in competitive markets. Technologies that are long-lived and are components of interlocking networks typically require the longest time to diffuse and co-evolve with other technologies in the network; such network effects yield high barriers to entry even for superior competitors. |
| 主题 | Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5945/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/124951 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Grubler A,Nakicenovic N,Victor DG. Dynamics of Energy Technologies and Global Change.. 1999. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| RR-99-07.pdf（17163KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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