| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Managing Climate Risk. | |
| Obersteiner M; Azar C; Kossmeier S; Mechler R; Moellersten K; Nilsson S; Read P; Yamagata Y | |
| 发表日期 | 2001 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-01-051 |
| 出版年 | 2001 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy in the climate change dilemma lies the assumption that the global community, by applying a set of powerful analytical tools, can predict the future of climate change accurately enough to choose a clear strategic direction for it. We claim that this approach might involve underestimating uncertainty in order to lay out a vision of future events sufficiently precise to be captured in a discounted cost flow analysis in integrated assessment models. However, since the future of climate change is truly uncertain, this approach might at best be marginally helpful and at worst downright dangerous: underestimating uncertainty can lead to strategies that do not defend the world against unexpected and sometimes even catastrophic threats. Another danger lies on the other extreme: if the global community can not find a strategy that works under traditional analysis or if uncertainties are too large that clear messages are absent, they may abandon the analytical rigor of their planning process altogether and base their decisions on good instinct and consensus of some future process that is easy to agree upon. |
| 主题 | Forestry (FOR) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6471/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125067 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Obersteiner M,Azar C,Kossmeier S,et al. Managing Climate Risk.. 2001. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| IR-01-051.pdf（198KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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