| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Induced Discounting and Its Implications to Catastrophic Risk Management. | |
| Ermolieva TY; Ermoliev YM; Hepburn C; Nilsson S; Obersteiner M | |
| 发表日期 | 2003 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-03-029 |
| 出版年 | 2003 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The implication of risks for justifying long-term investment remains a controversial issue. For example, how can we justify mitigation efforts for a 200-year flood that may, in fact, occur in one year or in 300 years? Discount rates obtained from capital markets are linked to assets with lifespans of a few decades and, as such, may significantly underestimate the results of long-term mitigations. In this paper, we show that the explicit treatment of extreme catastrophic events and related uncertain time horizons and risks induce dynamically adjusted discount rates, conditional on the degree of social commitment to mitigate risk. In particular, the standard time geometric (exponential) discount factors are induced by an event with time horizons characterized by a "memoryless" geometric (exponential) probability distribution. A set of such events induces declining time inconsistent discount rates that are dominated by least probable extreme events. In general, risk affects discount rates, which alter the optimal mitigation efforts that in turn, change the risk. We show that the induced discount factors can be analyzed by solving stochastic optimization problems. Our simulation results indicate that the misperception of time inconsistency associated with induced discounting may dramatically effect - delay or provoke - the possibility of catastrophic collapse. |
| 主题 | Forestry (FOR) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7054/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125256 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ermolieva TY,Ermoliev YM,Hepburn C,et al. Induced Discounting and Its Implications to Catastrophic Risk Management.. 2003. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| IR-03-029.pdf（97KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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