全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): China's Uncertain Demographic Present and Future.

G2TT

来源类型	Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
规范类型	报告
	China's Uncertain Demographic Present and Future.
	Lutz W; Scherbov S; Cao G-Y; Ren Q; Zheng X-Y
发表日期	2005
出版者	IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-05-043
出版年	2005
语种	英语
摘要	This paper will apply methods of probabilistic population projection forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China's future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China's current fertility level ( with estimates ranging from 1.2 to 1.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. the model applied in this paper will be based on expert based uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China's population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also on a global scale.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7793/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125425
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lutz W,Scherbov S,Cao G-Y,et al. China's Uncertain Demographic Present and Future.. 2005.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
IR-05-043.pdf（191KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览