| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis. | |
| O'Neill BC; Ermoliev Y; Ermolieva T | |
| 发表日期 | 2005 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-05-037 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- and CVaR-type risk measures. Combined with explicit introduction of "safety" constraints, it creates a "hit-or-miss" type decision-making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less-or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties. |
| 主题 | Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC) ; Population and Climate Change (PCC) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7799/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125431 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O'Neill BC,Ermoliev Y,Ermolieva T. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis.. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| IR-05-037.pdf（166KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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