| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Forecasting Technology Costs via the Learning Curve - Myth or Magic? | |
| Alberth S | |
| 发表日期 | 2006 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-06-058 |
| 出版年 | 2006 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | To further our understanding of the effectiveness of learning or experience curves to forecast technology costs, a statistical analysis using historical data has been carried out. Three hypotheses have been tested using available data sets that together shed light on the ability of experience curves to forecast future technology costs. The results indicate that the Single Factor Learning Curve is a highly effective estimator of future costs with little bias when errors were viewed in their log format. However it was also found that due to the convexity of the log curve an overestimation of potential cost reductions arises when the results were considered in monetary units. Furthermore the effectiveness of increasing weights for more recent data was tested using Weighted Least Squares with exponentially increasing weights. This resulted in forecasts that were typically less biased than when using Ordinary Least Square and highlighted the potential benefits of this method. |
| 主题 | Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) ; Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8041/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125500 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alberth S. Forecasting Technology Costs via the Learning Curve - Myth or Magic?. 2006. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| IR-06-058.pdf（828KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [Alberth S]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [Alberth S]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [Alberth S]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
