| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Interim Report) |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments. | |
| Garbero A; Pamuk E; Garenne M; Masquelier B; Pelletier F | |
| 发表日期 | 2013 |
| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-13-017 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines the future of mortality in the 65 countries still experiencing high mortality in 2010, as defined by a cutoff of 40 deaths before age five per thousand live births. Mortality declines in several countries stagnated or reversed in the last two decades of the twentieth century due mainly to HIV/AIDS. The forces underlying past mortality trends and affecting the future course of mortality are examined by reviewing the existing literature and reporting the results of the global survey and invited meeting, both involving mortality experts. The experts assessed the likelihood and weight of forces hypothesized to influence mortality. A statistical model is combined with these expert assessments to produce a set of mortality assumptions that are incorporated into the projections reported in this paper. This paper also addresses the limited availability of reliable data on age-specific mortality rates. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10743/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/125969 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garbero A,Pamuk E,Garenne M,et al. The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments.. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| IR-13-017.pdf（1513KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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