| 来源类型 | Monograph (IIASA Working Paper)
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| 规范类型 | 论文
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| Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision. |
| Jonas M; Żebrowski P
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| 发表日期 | 2016
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| 出版者 | IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-16-009
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| 出版年 | 2016
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | The study by Jonas et al. (2014) has received interest, notably by the Austrian Climate Research Programme [ACRP], regarding the use of the results at national scales. Jonas et al. discuss diagnostic (retrospective: looking back in time) and prognostic (prospective: looking forward in time) uncertainty in an emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework that allows any country to understand its near-term mitigation and adaptation efforts in a globally consistent and long-term context which includes all countries and stipulates global warming to range between 2 and 4 °C. To achieve this understanding, the study established national linear emission target paths (e.g., from 1990 to 2050) that are globally consistent. In this systems context, cumulative emissions until 2050 are constrained and globally binding but are uncertain (i.e., they can be estimated only imprecisely); and whether or not compliance with an agreed temperature target in 2050 and beyond will be achieved is also uncertain. In a nutshell, the emissions-temperature-uncertainty framework can be used to monitor a country’s performance - past as well as prospective achievements - in complying with a future warming target in a quantified uncertainty-risk context. |
| 主题 | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
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| 关键词 | Uncertainty, Reduction Targets, GHG Emission Scenarios, ETU Framwork
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13295/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/126044
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Jonas M,Żebrowski P. Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision.. 2016.
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