| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1029/WR011i006p00839 |
| A Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models. | |
| Wood EF; Rodríguez-Iturbe I | |
| 发表日期 | 1975 |
| 出处 | Water Resources Research 11 (6): 839-843 |
| 出版年 | 1975 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The statistical uncertainty resulting from the lack of knowledge of which model represents a given stochastic process is analyzed. This analysis of model uncertainty leads to a composite Bayesian distribution. The composite Bayesian distribution is a linear model of the individual Bayesian probability distributions of the individual models, weighted by the posterior probability that a particular model is the true model. The composite Bayesian probability model accounts for all sources of statistical uncertainty, both parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. This model is the one that should be used in applied problems of decision analysis, for it best represents the knowledge, or lack of it, to the decision maker about future events of the process. |
| 主题 | Water (WAT) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14015/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/126564 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wood EF,Rodríguez-Iturbe I. A Bayesian approach to analyzing uncertainty among flood frequency models.. 1975. |
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