| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1029/WR011i004p00533 |
| Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events. | |
| Wood EF; Rodríguez-Iturbe I | |
| 发表日期 | 1975 |
| 出处 | Water Resources Research 11 (4): 533-542 |
| 出版年 | 1975 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Hydrologic decision making usually occurs in an uncertain world and should combine inferences about uncertain outcomes with the decision makers’ preferences toward these outcomes. The decisions associated with flood protection are considered in detail where there exists uncertainty in the frequency of future flood discharges. Procedures are developed for analyzing and accounting for both statistical uncertainty of competing flood frequency models and statistical parameter uncertainty for the individual models. Inferences about flood frequency are combined with a decision model for which the decision rule is the maximization of expected monetary benefits. A case study to determine the optimal size of local flood protection by using prior information from a regional regression model, historical data, and realistic flood cost and damage functions is presented. |
| 主题 | Water (WAT) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/14018/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/126567 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wood EF,Rodríguez-Iturbe I. Bayesian inference and decision making for extreme hydrologic events.. 1975. |
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