| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 其他
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| DOI | 10.1016/0040-1625(82)90028-2
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| Long waves in world industrial production, energy consumption, innovations, inventions, and patents and their identification by spectral analysis. |
| Haustein H-D; Neuwirth E
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| 发表日期 | 1982
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| 出处 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change 22 (1): 53-89
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| 出版年 | 1982
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| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | Long-term cycles have been much discussed in the literature since Kondratieff (1926). (“Cycles” is, of course, a quite arbitrary term for these time periods.) Spectral analysis was applied by the authors to long-time series of industrial production, energy consumption, inventions, innovations, and patents in order to reveal quantitative regularities in their behavior and or in their interdependence. An attempt was also made to identify logistics within those time series. In the long cycle of 50–53 years no significant autocorrelation could be detected. Logistics exist only in three special periods for innovations and inventions. Nondominant long cycles do appear in the interaction between innovations, production, patents, and energy consumption. The investigation shed light on the causal structure of the innovation system. In particular, it revealed a significant influence of industrial production on patents with a lag of 9 years. |
| 主题 | Management and Technology Area (MMT)
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12472/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/126804
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Haustein H-D,Neuwirth E. Long waves in world industrial production, energy consumption, innovations, inventions, and patents and their identification by spectral analysis.. 1982.
|
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