全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0
	The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.
	Yashin AI; Manton KG; Stallard E
发表日期	1989
出处	Theoretical Population Biology 35 (2): 119-141
出版年	1989
语种	英语
摘要	This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog.
主题	World Population (POP)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/12621/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/127045
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yashin AI,Manton KG,Stallard E. The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.. 1989.