| 来源类型 | Article
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| 规范类型 | 其他
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| DOI | 10.1080/08898489509525405
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| Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions. |
| Sanderson WC
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| 发表日期 | 1995
|
| 出处 | Mathematical Population Studies 5 (3): 259-279
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| 出版年 | 1995
|
| 语种 | 英语
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| 摘要 | More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP)
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| 关键词 | Population forecasting
Population confidence intervals
Population prediction intervals
Model complexity
Demographic economic and environmental interactions
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| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4256/
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| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/127363
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Sanderson WC. Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions.. 1995.
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