| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00111-9 |
| Population of Russia: What can we expect in the future? | |
| Andreev E; Scherbov S; Willekens F | |
| 发表日期 | 1998 |
| 出处 | World Development 26 (11): 1939-1955 |
| 出版年 | 1998 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The paper presents the first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), six krays (territories), 21 republics, one autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic scenarios, two medium scenarios and one pessimistic scenario. The scenarios are combinations of three mortality scenarios, two fertility scenarios and three migration scenarios. Results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for 11 economic-geographic regions. The main findings of the scenario analysis are: (a) the population decline, which started in 1992, continues in all scenarios; (b) aging of the population reaches unprecedented levels; (c) the spatial redistribution of the population out of Siberia to the European part of Russia, in particular the southern regions (North Caucasus and the Volga Region), continues. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5370/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/127727 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Andreev E,Scherbov S,Willekens F. Population of Russia: What can we expect in the future?. 1998. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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