| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1094/PHYTO.1999.89.6.495 |
| Pandemics of focal plant disease: A model. | |
| van den Bosch F; Metz JAJ; Zadoks JC | |
| 发表日期 | 1999 |
| 出处 | Phytopathology 89 (6): 495-505 |
| 出版年 | 1999 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | An analytical model of a pandemic, initiated by a single focus and spreading over a continent, is developed using foci as the smallest units of disease and fields as the smallest units of host. A few generalizing assumptions lead to a parameter-sparse model that may answer general questions on pandemics in a qualitative manner. For pandemic spread of disease during one season, a 'within-season velocity of pandemic spread,' C, is expressed as a set of integral equations. Reduction of inoculum during the off-season is expressed by a 'survival ratio' of inoculum, e. The effect of the off-season is a 'push-back' of the pandemic front over a distance delta h. It will be shown how delta h is related to C and e. The mean pandemic spread over successive years is calculated as the 'polyetic velocity of pandemic spread,' V, which depends on C and the push-back distance. The concept of 'pandemic effectiveness' is parameterized. Relations between the two velocities of pandemic spread and several model parameters are studied. Somewhat unexpectedly, velocities of pandemic spread depend only in a very limited way on field density represented by the 'cropping ratio' x. This implies that our model and methods will also apply to situations with inhomogeneous field distributions. The effect of parameter values on rates of severity increase are analyzed. Finally, generalizations of the model are developed and their applications discussed. |
| 主题 | Adaptive Dynamics Network (ADN) |
| 关键词 | Disease spread Overseasoning Sanitation Seasonality |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/5701/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/127777 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van den Bosch F,Metz JAJ,Zadoks JC. Pandemics of focal plant disease: A model.. 1999. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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