全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): On long-term forecasting of social security: A robustness analysis.

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来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1023/A:1004837101481
	On long-term forecasting of social security: A robustness analysis.
	Ermolieva TY; MacKellar FL; Westlund A
发表日期	2001
出处	Quality & Quantity
出版年	2001
语种	英语
摘要	In this paper we present a macro-economic demographic growth model having a special focus on social security. It is designed to study the variability of responses of the system in presence of risks and uncertainties. Here we analyze the robustness of the model towards uncertainties in parameter specifications, introduced by ARCH-M models with the incorporation of intervention processes. The parameters varied are labor force participation rates (one of the key sources of uncertainty in the social security policy debate), and the parameters of the production function (the key source of uncertainty in any long-run economic analysis). The sensitivity analysis focuses on two variables: assets of the private pension system and the balance of the public "Pay As You Go" pension system. Special attention is given to convergence properties of the macro-economic model.
主题	Social Security Reform (SSR)
关键词	Social security forecasting Structural changes Misspecification Robustness
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6369/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128074
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ermolieva TY,MacKellar FL,Westlund A. On long-term forecasting of social security: A robustness analysis.. 2001.