| 来源类型 | Article
|
| 规范类型 | 其他
|
| DOI | 10.1098/rstb.2002.1121
|
| Determinants of human population growth. |
| Lutz W; Ren Q
|
| 发表日期 | 2002
|
| 出处 | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 357 (1425): 1197-1210
|
| 出版年 | 2002
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well-studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP)
|
| 关键词 | World population growth
Demographic transition
Human fertility
Population density
|
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6573/
|
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
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| 引用统计 |
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| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
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| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128124
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Lutz W,Ren Q. Determinants of human population growth.. 2002.
|
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