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来源类型 | Article |
规范类型 | 其他 |
DOI | 10.1007/BF03031799 |
The end of population growth in Asia. | |
Lutz W; Scherbov S; Sanderson WC | |
发表日期 | 2003 |
出处 | Journal of Population Research 20 (1): 125-141 |
出版年 | 2003 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world's most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100. |
主题 | World Population (POP) |
关键词 | Population projections Probability Asia Fertility trends Mortality trends Ageing Population composition Population growth |
URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/6907/ |
来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128293 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz W,Scherbov S,Sanderson WC. The end of population growth in Asia.. 2003. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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