| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00225.x |
| Probabilistic population projections for India with explicit consideration of the education-fertility link. | |
| Lutz W; Scherbov S | |
| 发表日期 | 2004 |
| 出处 | International Statistical Review 72 (1): 81-92 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi-state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | India population education projections uncertainty |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7174/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128396 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz W,Scherbov S. Probabilistic population projections for India with explicit consideration of the education-fertility link.. 2004. |
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