全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Conditional probabilistic population forecasting.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00230.x
	Conditional probabilistic population forecasting.
	Sanderson WC; Scherbov S; O'Neill BC; Lutz W
发表日期	2004
出处	International Statistical Review 72 (2): 157-166
出版年	2004
语种	英语
摘要	Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer 'what if' type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call 'future jump-off date forecasts'. Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy-makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.
主题	World Population (POP)
关键词	Forecasting Population forecasting Probabilistic forecasting Scenarios Scenario analysis
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7177/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128399
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sanderson WC,Scherbov S,O'Neill BC,et al. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting.. 2004.