| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00231.x |
| Conditional probabilistic population projections: An application to climate change. | |
| O'Neill BC | |
| 发表日期 | 2004 |
| 出处 | International Statistical Review 72 (2): 167-184 |
| 出版年 | 2004 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) ; Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI) |
| 关键词 | Population Projection Uncertainty Scenario Climate change |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7178/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128400 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | O'Neill BC. Conditional probabilistic population projections: An application to climate change.. 2004. |
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