全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1029/2005JD006518
	Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures.
	Unger N; Shindell DT; Koch DM; Amann M; Cofala J; Streets DG
发表日期	2006
出处	Journal of Geophysical Research 111 (12)
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	We apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies composition-climate model to an assessment of tropospheric O3, CH4, and sulfate at 2030. We compare four different anthropogenic emissions forecasts: A1B and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The projections encompass a wide range of possible man-made emissions changes. The A1B, B1, and CLE forecasts all suggest large increases in surface O3 and sulfate baseline pollution at tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially over the Indian subcontinent, where the pollution increases may be as large as 100%. The ranges of annual mean regional ground level O3 and sulfate changes across all scenarios are -10 to +30 ppbv and -1200 to +3000 pptv, respectively. Physical climate changes reduce future surface O3, but tend to increase ground level sulfate locally over North Africa because of an enhancement of aqueous-phase SO2 oxidation. For all examined future scenarios the combined sum of the CH4, O3, and sulfate radiative forcings is positive, even for the MFR scenario, because of the large reduction in sulfate. For A1B the forcings are as much as half of that of the preindustrial to present-day forcing for each species. For MFR the sign of the forcing for each species is reversed with respect to the other scenarios. At 2030, global changes in climate-sensitive natural emissions of CH4 from wetlands, NOx from lightning, and dimethyl sulfide from the ocean appear to be small (<5%).
主题	Air Quality & ; Greenhouse Gases (AIR) ; Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13462/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128519
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Unger N,Shindell DT,Koch DM,et al. Influences of man-made emissions and climate changes on tropospheric ozone, methane, and sulfate at 2030 from a broad range of possible futures.. 2006.