全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1080/13669870600717632
	Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise.
	Tol RSJ; Bohn M; Downing T; Guillerminet ML; Hizsnyik E; Kasperson RE; Lonsdale K; Toth FL
发表日期	2006
出处	Journal of Risk Research 9 (5): 467-482
出版年	2006
语种	英语
摘要	There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam-Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
主题	Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes (LUC)
关键词	Sea level rise West-Antarctic Ice Sheet adaptation
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/7846/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128529
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tol RSJ,Bohn M,Downing T,et al. Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise.. 2006.