全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Anticipatory modeling of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin: First steps to establish a participatory adaptive framework.

G2TT

来源类型	Article
规范类型	其他
DOI	10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.032
	Anticipatory modeling of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin: First steps to establish a participatory adaptive framework.
	Sendzimir J; Magnuszewski P; Balogh P; Vari A
发表日期	2007
出处	Environmental Modelling & Software 22 (5): 599-609
出版年	2007
语种	英语
摘要	Initial successes in flood control in the Tisza River Basin (TRB) have repeatedly given way to surprising and catastrophic reversals over the past 130years since implementation of the original Vasarhelyi river engineering plan. Recurrent and parallel crises in economic, ecological and socio-cultural domains of the TRB suggest systemic linkages far broader than imagined in the economic paradigms that drove the reshaping of the TRB. Typical of 'policy resistance', these problems have 'wickedly' resisted repeated efforts to solve them. Future river basin management needs conceptual and methodological tools to develop more comprehensive models that account for the complexity of the wider diversity of these systemic linkages and the resultant non-linear dynamics. Biocomplexity is one attempt to elaborate a more comprehensive conceptual paradigm. This paper describes how the authors applied a method, causal loop diagramming, as a means to graphically examine what aspects of system structure might generate surprising and counter-intuitive policy reversals characteristic of wicked problems. We applied this method in advance of collaboration with stakeholders as a means to deepen our intuition about the system's complexity as a way to better prepare to facilitate participatory modeling exercises within the Adaptive Management (AM) tradition.
主题	Risk and Vulnerability (RAV)
URL	http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8113/
来源智库	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128639
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sendzimir J,Magnuszewski P,Balogh P,et al. Anticipatory modeling of biocomplexity in the Tisza River Basin: First steps to establish a participatory adaptive framework.. 2007.