| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1073/pnas.0711129105 |
| Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios. | |
| van Vuuren DP; Meinshausen M; Plattner G-K; Joos F; Riahi K; Chesnaye F de la; Elzen MGJ den; Fujino J | |
| 发表日期 | 2008 |
| 出处 | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (40): 15258-15262 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of ~1.40C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. |
| 主题 | Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) |
| 关键词 | climate climate policy stabilization integrated assessment scenario |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8517/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128748 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van Vuuren DP,Meinshausen M,Plattner G-K,et al. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.. 2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| Temperature%20increa（942KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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