G2TT
来源类型Article
规范类型其他
DOI10.1073/pnas.0711129105
Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.
van Vuuren DP; Meinshausen M; Plattner G-K; Joos F; Riahi K; Chesnaye F de la; Elzen MGJ den; Fujino J
发表日期2008
出处Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (40): 15258-15262
出版年2008
语种英语
摘要Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of ~1.40C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
主题Energy (ENE) ; Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
关键词climate climate policy stabilization integrated assessment scenario
URLhttp://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8517/
来源智库International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128748
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
van Vuuren DP,Meinshausen M,Plattner G-K,et al. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.. 2008.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Temperature%20increa(942KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[van Vuuren DP]的文章
[Meinshausen M]的文章
[Plattner G-K]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[van Vuuren DP]的文章
[Meinshausen M]的文章
[Plattner G-K]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[van Vuuren DP]的文章
[Meinshausen M]的文章
[Plattner G-K]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: Temperature%20increase%20of%2021st%20century%20mitigation%20scenarios.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。