| 来源类型 | Article |
| 规范类型 | 其他 |
| DOI | 10.1080/17441730801966964 |
| How well did past UN population projections anticipate demographic trends in six South-east Asian countries? | |
| Khan HTA; Lutz W | |
| 发表日期 | 2008 |
| 出处 | Asian Population Studies 4 (1): 77-95 |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations' population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections. |
| 主题 | World Population (POP) |
| 关键词 | Quality of data Accuracy of projections UN population projection South-east Asia Uncertainty |
| URL | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8613/ |
| 来源智库 | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/128887 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Khan HTA,Lutz W. How well did past UN population projections anticipate demographic trends in six South-east Asian countries?. 2008. |
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